Global
Scenario: The USA-Israel-Iran war risks a major
global recession, with a 49-50% probability of U.S.
recession due to spiking oil prices and a potential $3.2
trillion in initial global market losses.
Long-term, it
threatens to permanently disrupt Middle East energy
supplies, accelerate stagflationary trends, and force a
significant, costly restructuring of regional security.
Iran will lose many people and suffer greatly
economically, but will gain a boost in image as the
strategic winner in the unequal war imposed on it. Iran
will emerge stronger due to a specific "theology of
resilience".
The US and Israel will suffer significant
image and financial losses, but will still declare
themselves victors.
The UAE will suffer in image. Investors will no
longer view it as an oases of safety. Foreign investment
and financial flows will decline significantly.
The European Union will experience an economic
downturn due to a sharp rise in energy prices.
Disagreements between and within countries will increase
sharply.
As a result of the economic downturn in the Persian Gulf
countries and the
EU, the US economy will
benefit, so the US declaring itself the winner in the
war with Iran will be realistic in this regard.
