Vadim Kotelnikov

Futures Thinking


Vadim Kotelnikov, founder of 1000ventures - personal logo VadiK

Inventor Business e-Coach

Author Innoball

Founder Innompic Games icon



Informed reflection on the major changes that may occur in future




Defining goals and outputs

Strategic thinking about opportunities you may have in the coming years to help develop a more effective long-term organizational strategy

Empathizing with customers

Putting yourself in tomorrow's customer's shoes

Looking to the edges  as a source of inspiration

Looking at tiny signals of change observed in today’s world and extrapolating what they might grow to in 10 to 15 years



Relying on personas, simulation games and beta-testing of prototypes to bring abstract concepts to life

Anticipating abstract scenarios for what life might be like in the future tangible by putting some prototypes in front of business stakeholders

Looking back to look forward

Connecting the data points to understand users on a deeper level by seeing how their realities and behaviors have evolved and to uncover trajectories of how they might continue to evolve

Collecting and clustering signals

Seeing how else we might look at what is happening at the edges of our organizational context to better understand potential opportunity areas

Forecasting two curves

Using a structured approach to envision how seeds of change from today’s edges might make their way into the mainstream and how, conversely, the elements from today’s mainstream might fall to obsolescence


How to see farther Stand on the shoulders of giants


“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.” ~ Winston Churchill

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"Live innovation: get involved in many innovative projects to acquire a unique perspective on the future, get a sense of the holistic nature of change, and learn how things evolve." ~ Tom Kelley




HIGHERsight  rapid learning course by VadiK trend watching  

Develop HIGHERsight

to be able to
see higher, anticipate farther, understand that others can't,
and manage change better.

Insight focuses on here-and-now.
Highersight focuses on the future.




Divergent and convergent thinking

Developing a series of scenarios, which are meant to illustrate multiple options for what the future might be without defining an exact prediction.

Revealing unexpected possibilities

Creating a framework to help make sense of these diverse elements and uncover new opportunity areas

Playing INNOBALL simulation game Innovation Brainball simulation games

Anticipating future customer wants and needs as well as challenges to be dealt with to meet those wants and needs





Example: "Scenes of the Future"

At Microsoft, JD Meier used a simple technique to step into the future. He called the technique "Scenes of the Future".

JD Meier used two approaches. One was to mock up a full scene of the future like the cover of a puzzle box. The other was to split a scene of the future into a Before / Change / After.

They both had their pros and cons, but inspiring people with scenes of the future was a great way to create momentum around new technology adoption against relevant business scenarios.