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Delphi-Scenario Writing (DSW) Method for Road-Mapping An Intuitive Method of Technology Forecasting |
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Executive Summary. Source: "Strategy Development by an Integrated Roadmapping Approach", Akio Kameoka, 2003
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Background The "Delphi-scenario writing" (DSW) method was first used in Toshiba Corporation in 1978 for developing the strategy of facsimile innovation for the small office and home use facsimile that was promoted intensively in Japan to overcome the language difficulties resulting from the use of many Chinese characters. Forecasting Comes First In every action, forecasting comes first. The Delphi method is a well-known intuitive method. The advantage of the Delphi forecast resides in its simplicity and convenience to use. The Delphi-Scenario method is an integrated method that provides a systematic approach to developing a strategic scenario for promoting the innovation process. Core Advantages New factors that would influence technological development could be found in writing the scenarios. This requires logical thinking by specifying the relations between the forecasted items. This approach in finding new related factors is one of the critical advantages of the DSW method. The second advantage is found in the easy processes of the scenario writing that do not require hard thinking by putting the Delphi-forecasting in the pre-stage. The Eight-Step Process...
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