Technology Strategy:

Road-Mapping

Delphi-Scenario Writing (DSW) Method for Road-Mapping

An Intuitive Method of Technology Forecasting

Executive Summary. Source: "Strategy Development by an Integrated Roadmapping Approach", Akio Kameoka

Innovation Strategy Delphi Scenario Writing Method Strategic Road Mapping Strategy Implementation

Core Advantages of the DSW Method

  • Helps to find new relationships among forecasted items

  • Easy to implement as scenario writing is a simple process

 

Background

 

The "Delphi-scenario writing" (DSW) method was first used in Toshiba Corporation in 1978 for developing the strategy of facsimile innovation for the small office and home use facsimile that was promoted intensively in Japan to overcome the language difficulties resulting from the use of many Chinese characters.

Forecasting Comes First

In every action, forecasting comes first.  The Delphi method is a well-known intuitive method. The advantage of the Delphi forecast resides in its simplicity and convenience to use.  The Delphi-Scenario method is an integrated method that provides a systematic approach to developing a strategic scenario for promoting the innovation process

The Eight-Step Process

The DSW method consists of the eight steps.  The first three steps from the first object analysis to the Delphi forecasting provide a Delphi needs/time chart, which illustrates the preliminary information of the technology and the future services.  Then, the following two steps from the fourth morphology analysis to foresight scenario writing focus on clarifying the interrelationships between the forecasted items, which generates a flow-chart scenario that leads to the another two steps from strategic program scenario writing to integrated strategy development.  The last step of the strategy implementation provides a practical program to promote the innovation and the expected results, for example, the projected penetration curve of the product life cycle.

Core Advantages

New factors that would influence technological development could be found in writing the scenarios. This requires logical thinking by specifying  the relations between the forecasted items.  This approach in finding new related factors is one of the critical advantages of the DSW method.  

The second advantage is found in the easy processes of the scenario writing that do not require hard thinking by putting the Delphi-forecasting in the pre-stage.